Quantum fears already limiting Bitcoin’s growth, Stacks founder says

Concerns about quantum computing are slowing institutional investment in Bitcoin, according to Stacks founder Muneeb Ali, who warned that the network needs a credible roadmap for security upgrades to restore investor confidence.

“There is already a ceiling on the growth of Bitcoin because of quantum fears,” Ali said during an interview on Cointelegraph’s Chain Reaction podcast. He argued that uncertainty could lead risk-averse institutional investors to delay large Bitcoin purchases until developers establish a credible path toward quantum-resistant security.

Stacks is a Bitcoin layer-2 network designed to bring smart contracts and decentralized applications to Bitcoin. Ali co-founded the project, which uses Bitcoin as its underlying settlement layer.

Chain Reaction Podcast. Source: Cointelegraph

Ali warned that Bitcoin could enter a riskier period if developers fail to make meaningful progress toward quantum-resistant security by 2028. He said upgrades typically take years to implement, with additional time needed for users to move their holdings to new addresses.

Ali pointed to 2030 as a target for transitioning to quantum-resistant security, citing guidance from the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). He suggested advances in artificial intelligence could accelerate the development of quantum computers, potentially bringing that timeline forward to 2029.

Ali acknowledged that some Bitcoin proponents believe the quantum computing threat remains distant and concerns are overblown. He argued, however, that disagreements over the urgency of the threat could themselves undermine investor confidence, particularly without a credible upgrade roadmap.

Related: Justin Sun says Tron’s post-quantum cryptography has gone live on testnet

Bitcoin’s quantum security debate

Despite his concerns, Ali said a sufficiently powerful quantum computer would more likely emerge from a major research laboratory than an unknown attacker. He suggested companies such as Google or Microsoft would have little incentive to use the technology to steal Bitcoin, given the potential legal consequences.

Ali also said a quantum security threat to Bitcoin would affect the broader cryptocurrency industry, even projects developing their own protections. “If Bitcoin gets hit, everyone gets hit downstream as well,” he said.

Meanwhile, developers are exploring ways to protect Bitcoin against quantum attacks. In September, StarkWare reported that researchers had reduced the estimated computing cost of preparing an experimental quantum-resistant Bitcoin transaction by 79%, following a weeklong optimization challenge.

The approach requires no changes to Bitcoin’s consensus rules, but the latest cost reductions have been demonstrated only in benchmark tests. StarkWare has described the technology as a last-resort measure and continues to advocate for a protocol-level upgrade as a longer-term solution.